The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas now forecasts Texas employment will grow 1.7% in 2026, which would add about 241,300 jobs and bring statewide employment to roughly 14.6 million by year-end.
That forecast was lowered from 2.0% a month earlier. Texas employment also slipped slightly in July, bringing year-to-date job growth to 1.6%, below the state’s long-run average of about 2%.
The important takeaway is not that Texas stopped growing. It didn’t. The picture is simply becoming more balanced after several years of unusually strong expansion. Professional and business services, education and health services, leisure and hospitality, other services, and oil and gas posted gains, while several other sectors lost jobs in July.
Why this matters for real estate: Housing demand follows jobs over time, but not every month moves in a straight line. A slower, more sustainable growth rate can still support North Texas while giving buyers and businesses a more realistic environment for planning. |
